In the previous presidential race, Latino-majority voters in Passaic County, New Jersey, helped Trump secure a narrow victory in the state. Yet last week, these same voters supported Democrat Mikie Sherrill, who won the governor’s seat by a double-digit margin.
In Union City, home to the largest Latino population in New Jersey, Democratic support surged by 47 points. Sherrill also carried District 9, a traditionally Trump-leaning area with a large Latino community, winning by 19 percentage points. Similarly, in Virginia, two cities with significant Latino populations swung toward Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who gained over 15 points in each and ultimately claimed victory.
Meanwhile, in Imperial County, California, support for a Democratic-backed redistricting proposal surpassed even Vice President Kamala Harris’s vote share from last year. Latinos make up 77% of Imperial’s population — marking the state’s largest political shift.
Just one year after Trump captured 48% of Latino votes nationwide, these new results suggest the Republican Party is losing ground among a key demographic.
Like Trump’s 2024 campaign, Democrats this year leveraged public frustration over rising living costs to regain Latino support — fueling optimism about winning back the House in the 2026 midterms, especially in Latino-heavy swing districts.
Democrats credit their renewed appeal to their message linking economic hardship to Trump’s failure to fulfill campaign promises.
“Latinos are losing faith in Republican promises to lower living costs and strengthen the economy,” said Bridget Gonzalez, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “High prices for food, utilities, and healthcare are driving Latinos back to the Democratic Party.”
In California, Governor Gavin Newsom’s campaign for Proposition 50 also focused on immigration, using images of ICE raids and border patrol operations to highlight Trump’s policies.
“The Latino backlash is both economic and personal,” said Juan Rodriguez, a senior strategist for Newsom. “Trump hurt their wallets with tariffs and their communities with immigration raids. The message for 2026 couldn’t be clearer.”
According to Tory Gavito, president of the progressive donor network Way to Win, many once believed Latino voters were warming up to Trump. “But in the past 11 months,” she said, “he’s done everything except think about Latino interests.”
Still, analysts caution that Democrats’ local successes may not necessarily repeat in next year’s midterms. Latino voters in Florida and South Texas may differ sharply from those in New Jersey or California.
Economic changes could easily shift voter sentiment, and some warn Democrats not to become complacent.
“There’s no guarantee Democrats will hold the advantage,” said Vanessa Cardenas, executive director of America’s Voice. “They must communicate more clearly on immigration and give voters something to vote for, not just against.”
In New Jersey’s District 9, Sherrill’s double-digit win — including strong showings in Bergen and Passaic counties — marked a sharp reversal from Trump’s near-victory in 2024. Yet, at the local level, Republican incumbents still performed well in mayoral and council races, showing that Democrats’ work is far from done.
Carlos Cruz, a Republican strategist and former campaign adviser, said the election served as “a referendum on Washington’s leadership and economic direction.”
“Some Latinos who supported Trump now feel disappointed and want to see more action,” he noted. “If he delivers, the Latino momentum could swing back to the GOP.”
Meanwhile, Morghan Cyr, campaign manager for Democratic state representative Nellie Pou, argued that recent results highlight the crucial role of Latino engagement.
“Early, strategic investment and strong community ties are essential,” Cyr said. “The progress we’ve made is encouraging — but we must keep building if Democrats want to reclaim the House in 2026.”