In an interview with NBC News on December 18, when asked about the risk of war with Venezuela, U.S. President Donald Trump said he “does not rule it out.” Earlier, he had also declared that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s time in power was “running out.”
In early September, the Trump administration launched a counternarcotics campaign in the Caribbean, deploying substantial forces to the region. U.S. forces reportedly struck more than 26 drug-smuggling boats, killing at least 100 people and sharply escalating tensions with Venezuela.
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Trump has repeatedly hinted that the United States could undertake ground operations in Venezuela, claiming the country is being “completely surrounded” and that the scale of pressure would expand. President Maduro has accused Washington of seeking to overthrow him and seize Caracas’s oil reserves.
These developments are testing the patience of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, the conservative base backing Trump. MAGA prioritizes an “America First” approach and limited foreign intervention, whereas Trump’s Venezuela policy appears to run counter to his campaign pledge that he would “not start wars, but help end them.” Analysts say MAGA can tolerate limited strikes against drug-smuggling boats off Venezuela’s coast, as ordered by Trump, because they remain constrained and have not resulted in U.S. troop casualties or equipment losses.
“MAGA broadly still supports the president’s objectives,” said Republican strategist Matt Terrill. “He does not view the operation near Venezuela as a new war, but as an authorized counternarcotics mission that is critical to national security.” These actions partly reflect Trump’s belief in achieving peace through strength. In the first year of his second term, he ordered strikes against the Houthis in Yemen and bombed Iranian nuclear facilities on similar grounds, facing relatively little backlash.
Asked whether a landing or airstrikes in Venezuela—risking a prolonged conflict—would align with MAGA’s stance, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump has made clear he does not want a long war.
“The president wants peace. He wants to stop drug trafficking into the United States that has taken hundreds of thousands of American lives. This is what he thinks about every day,” Leavitt said. Deputy press secretary Anna Kelly described the moves targeting Venezuela as part of Trump’s commitment to crack down on drugs.
Even so, Trump risks alienating MAGA if he takes decisive military action against Venezuela. He has said he does not need congressional approval to do so, while recent polls show 53% of conservatives disagree with that view. Seventy-six percent say the federal government has not clearly explained the U.S. position on the possible use of force in Venezuela.
“MAGA likes blowing up drug boats,” said Rachel Bovard, vice president of the conservative nonprofit CPI in Washington. “But they don’t want a ground war in Venezuela.”
Justin Logan, director of foreign policy and defense studies at the Cato Institute, said MAGA’s muted response so far does not mean agreement with Trump’s policy, but rather reflects the relatively low political costs of the administration’s actions to date.
“You can pursue unconventional foreign policies when the costs are low, as they are now,” Logan said. “But if the U.S. launches a regime-change war in Venezuela, everything changes—the costs skyrocket, attention intensifies, and disagreements explode.” He added that Washington’s tough rhetoric has yet to clarify what concrete next steps might be.
In October, Trump said he had authorized the Central Intelligence Agency to conduct covert operations in Venezuela and that the U.S. was considering strikes against criminal gangs on its territory. Asked when ground operations might occur, he said only that it would be “fairly soon.”
That ambiguity allows Trump to keep diplomatic channels open while repeatedly issuing warnings to increase pressure on Venezuela.
“The president is projecting toughness toward Maduro,” said Patrick Hulme, an associate professor of law and political science at the University of Florida. “He wants the other side to believe, ‘I’m Trump—unpredictable, and I might really do it.’”
So far, however, Maduro has shown no sign of yielding. He has ordered the Venezuelan navy to escort oil tankers out of port to prevent possible U.S. seizures at sea, responding to Washington’s talk of a maritime “blockade.”
Conservative policy analyst Curt Mills warned that attempting to use force to oust Maduro could ignite a fierce debate within MAGA, whose patience has already been strained by disputes over Ukraine and Iran.
“The right would be more divided than over who controls Donbas in eastern Ukraine or Iran’s uranium enrichment,” Mills said.