In a report released on August 11, the CBO projected that the poorest 10% of Americans—about 33 million people—would lose roughly $1,200 per year due to tighter eligibility rules for federal assistance programs such as Medicaid and food stamps. In contrast, the richest 10% would see their annual incomes rise by an average of $13,600 thanks to the bill’s tax cuts.
While most U.S. households, including many in the middle class, would see modest income gains, the CBO said the largest benefits would go to the top income bracket.
The CBO, a nonpartisan agency established in 1974, does not make policy recommendations but evaluates the fiscal impact of legislation, projecting federal budgets, economic growth, inflation, and public debt. Its reports are widely used by lawmakers from both parties in policy debates.
Passed by Congress in July with strong Republican support, the OBBBA combines new spending priorities with sweeping tax reductions. Democrats opposed the measure, warning that it would weaken essential safety net programs and increase the national debt.
According to the CBO, changes to food assistance rules under the bill—such as new work requirements—could strip about 2.4 million Americans of eligibility for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Many of those affected could be people with limited work capacity who would no longer receive benefits.
The agency also estimated that over 10 million Americans could lose health insurance by 2034 as a result of changes to Medicaid and other public health programs.
House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith, a Republican, dismissed the CBO’s findings, arguing the agency has a history of flawed estimates and bias toward higher federal spending and taxes. President Trump has not commented on the report.