Just three weeks ago, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke by phone and agreed to meet in person at the APEC Summit in South Korea later this month. The call had sparked hopes that relations between the world’s two largest economies might finally improve after months of tariff disputes.
However, by October 10, that optimism faded when President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting November 1. The move came a day after China imposed broad new controls on the export of rare earth minerals — critical materials for semiconductors, fighter jets, and other advanced technologies.
Trump accused Beijing of “extremely aggressive actions” and warned that tariffs could take effect even sooner if China escalated further. Beijing, in turn, denounced Washington’s “double standards,” claiming its rare earth restrictions were legitimate and comparable to U.S. export controls.
Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of Global Times, argued that China’s actions were merely retaliatory and that the country was no longer intimidated by U.S. pressure. “Chinese society truly no longer fears the U.S.,” he said. “High tariffs and other leverage tools have lost their deterrent power.”
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urged dialogue but warned of countermeasures if Washington “insists on going its own way.”
Observers trace the renewed tension back to September 29, when the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a new “affiliates rule” restricting exports by thousands of foreign companies linked to blacklisted entities. Although the rule did not mention China directly, several Chinese firms were immediately affected. Beijing viewed this as a violation of the understanding reached in Geneva in May, prompting its new rare earth measures.
According to Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council, China’s tough response may reflect a belief that Trump will be forced to show restraint — especially as the U.S. Supreme Court prepares to hear a case on presidential tariff powers in early November, which could limit Trump’s authority.
Meanwhile, domestic turmoil in Washington — including a two-week government shutdown — has weakened the administration’s position, while U.S. industry remains heavily dependent on Chinese rare earths despite recent $400 million investments in domestic production.
Analyst Priyankka Deo noted that China’s restrictions strike directly at America’s industrial and defense base, while Professor Wang Yiwei of Renmin University suggested Beijing could leverage this advantage to push for broader concessions on issues like Taiwan or semiconductor policy.
Still, some experts warn that Beijing may be miscalculating. Yun Sun, head of the China Program at the Stimson Center, said China has developed a “habit of underestimating” Washington’s willingness and capacity to retaliate — a risky assumption when dealing with a leader as unpredictable as Trump.
For Trump, the new 100% tariff announcement serves multiple goals. Politically, it reinforces his image as tough on trade; tactically, it’s a negotiation tool designed to pressure Beijing back to the table; and symbolically, it coincides with his Middle East peace breakthrough, projecting U.S. strength on both diplomatic and economic fronts.
In the words of Professor Zhu Feng of Nanjing University:
“Even as China acts to protect its interests, it must remain cautious. If this trade war escalates further, it will certainly harm China’s own interests.”